Mr. Self Destruct and Missing the Point

So.....here we go.

Football stats are shit. They always have been, they always will be. I am a software engineer who works in the simulation industry, so that is where I am coming from. Here is the problem with football stats, they can only tell you, marginally at best, what has already happened, which is useless because if you watch the game and look at what happened on each individual play, you would know better about what happened in a game then you would by running and looking at any stat, basic, advanced, cheese wiz, any stat at best lets you get a general feel for what happened numerically.

Hey, hate to break it to you stat people, unless your stats start to become predictive in nature, then it is just an exercise in number jerking. You are essentially saying "look at how well Excell can add, subtract, multiply and divide". Ooooooooo, how fancy for you. Big fucking deal. Unless stats are helping you create a model that helps you predict what a team will do, or be able to do, then you might as well go back to typing 80085 into your calculators, because all you have done is miss the fucking point. Football is a complicated system filled with an enormous number of variables per play per position that trying to generalize any of that into a very small set of numbers(even advanced stats fail to cover the full breadth and scope of any one single thing that it tries to interpret. Sorry, if you want to know what is going on, you have to watch the game, multiple times. If you use stats to make your arguments, then you are no better then any moron on ESPN or NFLN who simply looks at the box score and makes idiotic statements that are not based in reality.

And doing that is hard, very very hard *and that is indeed what she said*. I have only begun to gain any competency in it as a skill, but it is the only way to know what is going on and have that deeper understanding. People who are great at it tend to be compensated very well for it. Every week I try to watch the previous 2-3 games of the Broncos opponents, as well as the Broncos themselves from the previous week, along with all of the press conferences by the Broncos coaches. I am willing to put in the time and effort so I can speak intelligently about what is going on. I do not look at box scores, I do not look at game summaries, I look at what happened. Not perfect, but I make the effort.

By focusing on the small, individual stats, you miss the greater picture. To quote Bruce Lee: "Don't think, FEEL. Its like a finger pointing to the moon. If you concentrate on the finger you will miss all that heavenly glory." There is flow to every single motion that occurs by every player on the field on each play, and what one does has a direct impact on what happens with other players. So....how does 15/25 account for any of that? It doesn't.

I am just so sick and tired of stats people using stats to inflate their ego's and sense of intelligence. How can you even have a conversation with someone who is so steadfast that their stats tell a deeper picture that they miss what happens on the field.

I will use a Tim Tebow example. Against the Patriots, on his fumble, Ryan Clady didn't block anybody, the running back didn't block anybody, and Tebow was unable to get it out quick enough to avoid the bad play. So where are the stats that tell that whole sequence of events? None, all you get are "Tebow fumbled the ball". Nevermind Ryan "Holding" Clady's inability to do ANYTHING on that play, or the running back's failure to do ANYTHING in protection, yup lets look at the end result of the play and clap our flipper hands and spout idiotic drivel.

Myopia

A statistically average QB would do statistically below average with

A WR corp that
* Doesn't get separation
* Has far too many drops
* Doesn't run routes at the right depth to get 1st Downs (I am looking at you Eddie)
* Doesn't stretch the field

The running game would also be greatly affected because
* The numerical advantage it currently enjoys would disappear without a running threat QB
* The Defense would only have to key on and rush on runner in the game.
* The running lanes that McGahee is currently enjoying would be much smaller

The O-Line's deficiencies would also be further exposed because
* The ability to gameplan for a traditional offense means they are able to play instinct football.
* LB's no longer have to spy/be assigned to a particular player because there is no dual threat.

The league average Quarterback would also have more sacks per game and more interceptions per game.

The offense as an entire unit needs to improve. Saying that a "league average quarterback" would do league average work with the current talent on offense is short sighted and myopic.

And lets look at the "more points offense" that Denver ran with the "below average quarterback"

Week 1: Denver vs Oakland: 24 - 20 L
272 Net Yards Passing 1 Passing TD, 1 Int
38 Net Yards Rushing 0 TD's
4 fumbles, 2 lost
Third Down Efficiency 6/13 - 46%
ST: Punt return for a touchdown.
Offense total points scored: 13

Week 2: Bengles vs Broncos 24 - 22 W
187 Net yards passing 2 Passing TD's 0 Ints
131 Net Rushing Yards, 1 TD
2 Fumbles, 2 Lost
Third Down Efficiency 5/12 - 41%
Offense total points scored: 24

Week 3: Broncos vs Titans 14 - 17 L
Net Yards Passing 172 2 Passing TD's, 2 Ints
Net Yards Rushing 59 0 TD's
0 Fumbles
Third Down Efficiency 8/15 - 53%
Offense total points scored: 14

Week 4 Broncos vs Packers 49 - 23 L
Net Yards Passing 265, 3 TDs, 3 Ints
Net Yards Rushing 119 0 TD's
1 Fumble, 1 Lost
Third Down Efficiency 4/11 - 36%
Offense total points scored: 23
Third Down Efficiency 4/11 - 36%

So, by MY count, the Broncos were scoring: 13, 24, 14, 23 for an average of: 18.5 points per game! OOoooooo what an offensive juggernaut Tebow crashed and burned.

But I know I know, I don't read too good because of my residency in a zombie village.

*hangs self from sheer myopia*

--Your gonna carry that weight

.
.	Name	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Rushing Yards	Average	Rushing TD's	Fumbles	Sck	Rate	Total Yards	Total Scores	Total Giveaways
.	Alex Smith	9	165	84	50.9	18.3	875	5.3	97.2	1	0.6	11	6.7	103	3.3	0	2	29	40.8	978	1	13
.	Alex Smith	16	442	257	58.1	27.6	2890	6.5	180.6	16	3.6	16	3.6	147	2.8	2	4	35	74.8	3037	18	20
.	Alex Smith	7	193	94	48.7	27.6	914	4.7	130.6	2	1	4	2.1	89	1.9	0	0	17	57.2	1003	2	4
.
.	Vince Young	5	357	184	51.5	23.8	2199	6.2	146.6	12	3.4	13	3.6	552	6.7	7	6	25	66.7	2751	19	19
.	Vince Young	15	382	238	62.3	25.5	2546	6.7	169.7	9	2.4	17	4.5	395	4.2	3	5	25	71.1	2941	12	22
.	Vince Young	3	36	22	61.1	12	219	6.1	73	1	2.8	2	5.6	27	3.4	0		3	64.5	246	1	2
.
.	Matt Leinart	12	377	214	56.8	31.4	2547	6.8	212.2	11	2.9	12	3.2	49	1.8	2	4	21	74	2596	13	16
.	Matt Leinart	5	112	60	53.6	22.4	647	5.8	129.4	2	1.8	4	3.6	42	2.2	0	0	4	61.9	689	2	4
.	Matt Leinart	4	29	15	51.7	7.2	264	9.1	66	1	3.4	1	3.4	5	1	0	0	2	80.2	269	1	1
.
.	Matt Ryan	16	434	265	61.1	27.1	3440	7.9	215	16	3.7	11	2.5	104	3.4	1	4	17	87.7	3544	17	15
.	Matt Ryan	14	451	263	58.3	32.2	2916	6.5	208.3	22	4.9	14	3.1	49	2.1	1	0	19	80.9	2965	23	14
.	Matt Ryan	16	571	357	62.5	35.7	3705	6.5	231.6	28	4.9	9	1.6	122	2.9	0	1	23	91	3827	28	10
.
.	Joe Flacco	16	428	257	60	26.8	2971	6.9	185.7	14	3.3	12	2.8	180	3.5	2	5	32	80.3	3151	16	17
.	Joe Flacco	16	499	315	63.1	31.2	3613	7.2	225.8	21	4.2	12	2.4	56	1.6	0	2	36	88.9	3669	21	14
.	Joe Flacco	16	489	306	62.6	30.6	3622	7.4	226.4	25	5.1	10	2	84	2	1	2	40	93.6	3706	26	12
.
.	Matthew Stafford	10	377	201	53.3	37.7	2267	6	226.7	13	3.4	20	5.3	108	5.4	2	0	24	61	2375	15	20
.	Matthew Stafford	3	96	57	59.4	32	535	5.6	178.3	6	6.3	1	1	11	2.8	1	1	4	91.3	546	7	2
.	Matthew Stafford	9	362	216	59.7	40.2	2508	6.9	278.7	20	5.5	8	2.2	31	3.4	0	1	18	89.9	2539	20	9
.
.	Mark Sanchez	15	364	196	53.8	24.3	2444	6.7	162.9	12	3.3	20	5.5	106	2.9	3	2	26	63	2550	15	22
.	Mark Sanchez	16	507	278	54.8	31.7	3291	6.5	205.7	17	3.4	13	2.6	105	3.5	3	4	27	75.3	3396	20	17
.	Mark Sanchez	10	338	193	57.1	33.8	2333	6.9	233.3	14	4.1	10	3	75	3.3	3	4	25	79.9	2408	17	14
.
.	Josh Freeman	10	290	158	54.5	29	1855	6.4	185.5	10	3.4	18	6.2	161	5.4	0	4	20	59.8	2016	10	22
.	Josh Freeman	16	474	291	61.4	29.6	3451	7.3	215.7	25	5.3	6	1.3	364	5.4	0	2	28	95.9	3815	25	8
.	Josh Freeman	9	340	208	61.2	37.8	2174	6.4	241.6	9	2.6	13	3.8	142	4.2	2	0	14	72.6	2316	11	13
.
.	Sam Bradford	16	590	354	60	36.9	3512	6	219.5	18	3.1	15	2.5	63	2.3	1	1	34	76.5	3575	19	16
.	Sam Bradford	7	257	142	55.3	36.7	1587	6.2	226.7	4	1.6	4	1.6	27	1.9	0		26	72.6	1614	4	4
.
.	Tim Tebow	9	82	41	50	9.1	654	8	72.7	5	6.1	3	3.7	227	5.3	6	1	6	82.1	881	11	4
.	Tim Tebow	8	125	56	44.8	15.6	709	5.7	88.6	7	5.6	1	0.8	388	6.9	3	2	15	78.4	1097	10	3
.
.	Cam Newton	9	327	197	60.2	36.3	2605	8	289.4	11	3.4	10	3.1	374	5.3	7	2	22	84	2979	18	12
.
.	Blaine Gabbert	8	194	93	47.9	24.2	1025	5.3	128.1	6	3.1	5	2.6	65	2.2	0	6	21	63.6	1090	6	11
.
.	Christian Ponder	4	111	56	50.5	27.8	744	6.7	186	3	2.7	3	2.7	60	5.5	0	1	9	69.8	804	3	4
.
.	Andy Dalton	9	287	173	60.3	31.9	1866	6.5	207.3	14	4.9	9	3.1	26	2	1	0	12	82.6	1892	15	9

The Egg and I: History Of Recent 1st Round QB's, By the Numbers

So, I am going to leave analysis to the smarter people. If I am feeling super annoyed by something, I will write it up here, but I present to you....a CHART! These stats are all from NFL.com, and the number of games is representative of total games played in, not started.

Year 1

Name/Games Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(9) * 1/1/2005/SF 165 84 50.9 875 1 11 5.3 40.8

Aaron Rodgers(3) * 1/24/2005/GB 16 9 56.3 65 0 1 4.1 39.8

Jason Campbell * 1/25/2005/WAS - - - - - - - -

Vince Young(15) * 1/3/2006/TEN 357 184 51.5 2199 12 13 6.2 66.7

Matt Leinart(12) * 1/10/2006/AZ 377 214 56.8 2547 11 12 6.8 74.0

Jay Cutler(5) * 1/11/2006/DEN 137 81 59.1 1001 9 5 7.3 88.5

JaMarcus Russel(4) * 1/1/2007/OAK 66 36 54.5 373 2 4 5.7 55.9

Brady Quinn(1) * 1/22/2007/CLE 8 3 37.5 45 0 0 5.6 56.8

Matt Ryan(16) * 1/3/2008/ATL 434 265 61.1 3440 16 11 7.9 87.7

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 428 257 60.0 2917 14 12 6.9 80.3

Matthew Stafford(10) * 1/1/2009/Det 377 201 53.3 2267 13 20 6.0 61.0

Mark Sanchez(15) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 364 196 53.8 2444 12 20 6.7 63.0

Josh Freeman(10) * 1/17/2009/TB 290 158 54.5 1855 10 18 6.4 59.8

Sam Bradford(16) * 1/1/2010/STL 590 354 60.0 3512 18 15 6.0 76.5

Tim Tebow(9) * 1/25/2010/DEN 82 41 50.0 654 5 3 8.0 82.1

Cam Newton(9) * 1/1/2011/CAR 327 197 60.2 2605 11 10 8.0 84.0

Blaine Gabbert(8) * 1/10/2011/JAX 194 93 47.9 1025 6 5 5.3 63.6

Christian Ponder(4) * 1/12/2011/MIN 111 56 50.5 744 3 3 6.7 69.8

Andy Dalton(9) * 2/3/2011/CIN 287 173 60.3 1866 14 9 6.5 82.6

Year 2

Name Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(16) * 1/1/2005/SF 442 257 58.1 2,890 16 16 6.5 74.8

Aaron Rodgers(2) * 1/24/2005/GB 15 6 40.0 46 0 0 3.1 48.2

Jason Campbell(7) * 1/25/2005/WAS 207 110 53.1 1297 10 6 6.3 76.5

Vince Young(15) * 1/3/2006/TEN 382 238 62.3 2546 9 17 6.7 71.1

Matt Leinart(5) * 1/10/2006/AZ 112 60 53.6 647 2 4 5.8 61.9

Jay Cutler(16) * 1/11/2006/DEN 467 297 63.6 3497 20 14 7.5 88.1

JaMarcus Russel(15)* 1/1/2007/OAK 198 368 53.8 2423 13 8 6.6 77.1

Brady Quinn(3) * 1/22/2007/CLE 89 45 50.6 518 2 2 5.8 66.6

Matt Ryan(14) * 1/3/2008/ATL 451 263 58.3 2916 22 14 6.5 80.9

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 499 315 63.1 3613 21 12 7.2 88.9

Matthew Stafford(3) * 1/1/2009/Det 96 57 59.4 535 6 1 5.6 91.3

Mark Sanchez(16) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 507 278 54.8 3291 17 13 6.5 75.3

Josh Freeman(16) * 1/17/2009/TB 474 291 61.4 3451 25 6 7.3 95.9

Sam Bradford (7) * 1/1/2010/STL 257 142 55.3 1587 4 4 6.2 72.6

Tim Tebow(8) * 1/25/2010/DEN 125 56 44.8 709 7 1 5.7 78.4

Year 3

Name Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(7) * 1/1/2005/SF 193 94 48.7 914 2 4 4.7 57.2

Aaron Rodgers(2) * 1/24/2005/GB 28 20 71.4 109 1 0 7.8 106

Jason Campbell(16) * 1/25/2005/WAS 506 315 62.3 3245 13 6 6.4 84.3

Vince Young(3) * 1/3/2006/TEN 36 22 61.1 219 1 2 6.1 64.5

Matt Leinart(4) * 1/10/2006/AZ 29 15 51.7 264 1 1 9.1 80.2

Jay Cutler(16) * 1/11/2006/DEN 616 384 62.3 4526 25 18 7.3 86.0

JaMarcus Russel(12)* 1/1/2007/OAK 246 120 48.8 1287 3 11 5.2 50.0

Brady Quinn(10) * 1/22/2007/CLE 256 136 53.1 1339 8 7 5.2 67.2

Matt Ryan(16) * 1/3/2008/ATL 571 357 62.5 3705 28 9 6.5 91.0

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 489 306 62.6 3622 25 10 7.4 93.6

Matthew Stafford(9) * 1/1/2009/Det 362 216 59.7 2508 20 8 6.9 89.9

Mark Sanchez(10) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 338 193 57.1 2333 14 10 6.9 79.9

Josh Freeman(9) * 1/17/2009/TB 340 208 61.2 2174 9 13 6.4 72.6

So...take what you will from all of this, but it certaintly provides numerical context, but not game context. Tebow is certainty not the worst Young QB that has played though....

--Diggin My Potato

The Grand Unification Theory of Tebow

So, this is more or less what I posted at IAOFM today, and is being saved here for all of history because...well I liked it....I personally don't see much humor in X > Y (in this case, X > Tebow), but alas I went this route....

For this math to work you have to assume either

a) The value of Tebow will remain a constant
b) The value of Tebow will never cross a certain threshold.

I mean you could also look at it that the value of Tebow is like some universal constant, like the Speed of Light or the ratio of Unicorns to Leprechauns, but that is a dangerous assumption. I mean if someone were to develop the General Theory of Tebow it is entirely possible that it will run into even more problems then String Theory.

And what if the value of Tebow isn’t a universal constant? How does the value of Tebow react when viewed at the quantum level?

Does the act of observing a Tebow affect the outcome? Can two Tebows interact and affect each other across great distances without ever interacting?

And even more fundamental….what is a unit of Tebow? What is its value?

What happens if you smash two Tebows together at near the speed of light? What are the constituent pieces of a Tebow?

Does a Tebow operate like a wave or an electron or both?

The big problem of determing the value of a Tebow is that first you need to be able to account for all factors that go into determining the composition of a Tebow. The other problem is the “gamer” quality that really makes pure scientific analysis hard(that’s what she said) because as it turns out, a unit of Tebow is not a universal constant, and it is indeed dependent on external influences that affect the results of your measurements.

As we all saw during TC this year, the value of a Tebow in practice != value of a Tebow in game. Hell, the value of a Tebow in game isn’t even a consistent variable!!! A 4th Quarter Tebow can be > 3rd Quarter Tebow, but that equation is not a constant either!

That is why I purpose the following plan of action, we invade one of our many parallel universes (Fringe style baby) and steal their Tebow. We then go to the LHC and accelerate the two separate Tebows to near the speed of light and see what their collisions produce. I mean, we need to get some very clear measurements on the composition of a Tebow before we can start making definitive statements about the value of a Tebow.

Then we run into the problem of determing the relation of the value of Tebow’s constituent elements in comparison to each other. I mean, how do you determine the value of intangibles vs Jockey Briefs? Sticking with the string theory analogy (as we are trying to do develop a Grand Unification Theory of Tebow), I hereby purpose that each individual element of a Tebow is in fact made up of tiny, vibrating Tebows, as such a Tebow is a collection of Tebows(or possibly a collection of Tebows could just be a 2D plane of Tebows….but that gets confusing….).

Once we isolate all of the individual elements of a Tebow, then we can start to determine their value in relation to the other elements of Tebow(somebody make a Periodic Table of the Tebows). Once we understand all of the interactions inherent in a Tebow action, then we can look at some of the other variables you mentioned.

Heck, the more I think about it, The Grand Unification Theory of Tebow is more ambitious then anything else this world has seen, because to determine the equations and values of things like media scuzz cycle, we need to quantifiable determine the value of a Peter King, and how he interacts!

I could be thinking crazy here, but perhaps all matter is made up of Tebows! If that were the case, we could then determine that the all of us are made of Tebow….oh my god….that means…

X > Tebow is a mathematical fallacy because if everything is made of Tebows, then Tebow > Tebow is a logical failure! The only thing that makes any logical sense is that X = Tebow! The only difference between all matter in the universe is the vibration of the faiths of the individual Tebows! Crap! what does the individual shape of a Tebow look like? How many additional dimensions does this new Theory require to make sense? How does it affect gravity?

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

-- Jammin with Edward

Bad Dog No Biscuits: Kyle Orton gets his nose wacked with the newspaper

Title aside, this post will be about something called the Denver Broncos. Just watched the game twice thanks to the magic of NFL Rewinds new compressed feature (game in ~30 mins, the magic never ends!). This is just going to be a brain dump, and we will see where we get.

• Lets start with the big news of the game, the defense! I kid, but seriously, after watching the game I have some ideas that I just want to get out there and see how they stick.
• Joe Mays. I love the guy. Anybody who hits as hard as he does certaintly gets love from me and I want to find a way to utilize his skillset. The past two weeks however, he seemingly hasn't been doing as well as he had been against the run, and I think I figured out why. He has not, as of yet, exhibited range in the East/West range. Previously the D-Line was playing better, which allowed Mays to lock on and launch himself like a bowling ball. What I saw from yesterday's game was him trying to make a solo TFL without any help from the D-Line(meaning they weren't getting any push and Mays just came through the hole). Problem is that when this happened Ryan Matthews was able to juke or make a move, making Mays miss. I don't know if this is something that is correctable in his game (I will leave the smarter football minds to decide this)
• D.J. Williams....can you do anything right? Can you take a good angle to get a TFL? Nope. Can you cover? Nope. I guess you can make a ton of money and make lots of tackles after the play has gained waaay too many yards. At least Wesley Woodyard could make things happen.
• Secondary. Its about what you would expect with that many young players. They are going to make mistakes, misdiagnose the play (see long TD to Floyd at the end of the 2nd half). Goodman apparently can't cover or tackle well, Vaughn is showing why he was a UDFA, Carter and Moore made plenty of rookie mistakes, all of that added up to missed opportunities. Not to say I don't have confidence in these players growing, but this is the kind of growing pains to be expected. Vaughn did have that awesome Pick 6, but opposing QB's are always going to target him and Goodman. CB must be a point of emphasis in the draft, along with DT.
• So...anyone figured out what is up with Doom? My first guess would be that he isn't fully healthy yet. Hopefully that is what is happening with him. With the number of additional defenders being thrown Von's way, there should have been more opportunities for Doom to make a bigger impact. Hopefully after the bye he will prove why he is getting that big paycheck.
• One thing that Brian Griese mentioned during the game and it kept showing up was the way to beat the edge rushers for the Broncos. Take a deep drop and then step up into the pocket and most of the time that pushed the rushers to the other side, removing the threat. This is a problem due to the lack of penetration by the DT and NT. Maybe blitz somebody up the middle on a delayed blitz?
• In the end, I think the defense acquitted it self fairly well given how much time they were on the field.
• Offense...well what is there to say about the offense....well a lot actually!
• The wide receivers....what the hell happened? Nobody was catching anything, nobody was getting open or getting any separation, I just don't know what happened. Well, I have some theories, so lets see what sticks to the wall.
• The first is something I am going to blame on the play calling. Why the hell are the receivers going to the sticks, turning around and just waiting for the ball? Why wasn't McCoy trying to push the ball down the field? Part of this is related to Kyle Orton, but I will get to that shortly.
• Well, I was going to save it for last, but the Kyle Orton issue seemingly comes back to the crux of what has happened over the past 5 weeks. I know Doug Lee at IAOFM disagrees with me on this point, but from what I have seen, Orton's only success has been from run sets, which puts the base defense on the field. At its best it has allowed the Broncos to run the PA game with a Max Protect set, with either 1 or 2 receivers running deep with an outlet receiver. But for whatever reason Kyle is not going for the deep pass this year. There have been some deep passes, but nothing like what we have seen the past 2 years. The short passing game + max protect protection scheme + some poor pass blocking has meant that there is usually 7-8 guys in coverage when there are only 2 receivers running routes. This does not seem like a good thing to me.
• Kyle Orton also seemingly fell in love with Fells (zing!) and the other TE's. The short passing game compressed the defense, and Kyle's poor decision making is part of the story of what has happened to him this year. Did Kyle lose his confidence? Looked that way, and in the end he was his own downfall. As much as I dislike him at QB, I know that he is better than he has played this year. It will be enlightening to find out what happened.
• I just don't know what happened to Orton. His footwork regressed, his decision making regressed, his field vision regressed, and his playmaking ability regressed. And this is in an offense that takes the burden off the QB. The run game has more or less been fairly strong, the defense has kept the team in the game, and the O-Line has more or less improved, but Orton has not capitalized on it.
• Then there was that other QB....Tebow was it? I didn't like the play calling by McCoy to be honest. Last year McCoy felt compelled to only call screen passes in the 1st half against the Texans, but we only got one screen pass yesterday? Interesting....
• On the deep incomplete to Decker, it was obvious on viewing why it didn't get there, Tebow was being chased and was about to get smacked in the face, he threw a jump ball, and it was just off target. I think that McCoy over the next two weeks will be responsible for crafting a good set of plays that will maximize Tebow's passing strengths. Maybe a bootleg....maybe? If Orton can do it I am fairly certain Tebow can. A simplified play book will help Tebow develop, particularly his progressions. One good thing that we saw yesterday was the fact that Tebow indeed did go through at least 2 progressions. His first completion to Decker was his second read. It went Matt Willis on the left, and then Decker on the right.

Well, that is all I have for tonight. Maybe more will come?

--Too good too bad

What EFX should be saying

I believe that the front office should be more honest and forthcoming with the fans.

"We have very passionate fans and appreciate their comments. We understand that the franchise has not lived up to their, and our own internal, expectations for the past few years. While this current staff was not with the team during that time, we understand that fans expect a certain level of quality from the team they are so passionate about. The many changes in Front Office staff, coaching and scheme have created an atmosphere that did not allow a longer term continuity to form.

The staff that is in place now is trying its hardest to right the ship. We ask the fans to have patience with us while we do this. The NFL is a competative league, and while we are in this transitional "reloading" phase we are trying to balance the need to develop young talent and trying to win now.

While the QB position is the one that most fans are focused on, we are constantly evaluating all positions on the roster to try to deliver the best product to our fans. We understand the level of frustration regarding the teams recent woes, but we promise that this team and staff will do everything in it's power to restore this franchise to its winning ways"

Function to Determine Future starting QB

I will sum up the Tebow vs Luck debate as best I can

QuarterBack determineFutureQuarterBack(QuarterBack Tebow, QuarterBack Luck)

{

QuarterBack future;

QuarterBackUpside TebowUpside, LuckUpside;

TebowDevTime = getQBDevTime(Tebow);

LuckDevTime = getQBDevTime(Luck);

TebowUpside = getQBUpside(Tebow);

LuckUpside = getQBUpside(Luck);

if(TebowDevTime + TebowUpside > LuckDevTime + LuckUpside)

{

future = Tebow;

}

else if(TebowDevTime + TebowUpside < LuckDevTime + LuckUpside)

{

future = Luck;

}

else

{

print("You be screweeeeeed bruh");

}

return future;

}

Kyle Orton Couldn't, Wouldn't, Shouldn't

Need to watch the game one more time before I write something more meaningful, but here is this for ya.

* Orton couldn't make throws to beat man coverage, Orton couldn't make throws to beat zone coverage,
* Orton was only sacked twice due to genuine pressure
* Orton was sacked three times due to walking right next to a D Lineman
* Orton missed wide open receivers
* Orton threw the ball poorly when he had time
* Orton threw the ball poorly when he didn't have time
* Orton turned the ball over twice with only himself to blame
* Orton couldn't beat 4 man blitzes
* Orton couldn't beat 6 man blitzes
* Orton wouldn't check out of run plays when the Raiders had 5 DL men at the line all game.

I am sure there are more wouldn't, couldn't, shouldn'ts to be made.

Would Tebow have faired better? Nobody can say yes and nobody can say no, because he didn't play. We can only look at the results of the game and question if Orton should be the starter. Some of you don't think Orton made very many mistakes and it is always the fault of the linemen or the receivers or the running backs or the pop corn guy. Here are the names of two other teams that couldn't run the ball well last year, Green Bay and New Orleans, how did they fair when the game was put entirely on their shoulders?

At the end of the day, Kyle Orton did not do his job. His self described job(way back when he first got here in '09) is "to throw touchdowns and win games". He failed at his job, and the leader of the offense will receive most of the blame for offensive failures. It is that way in everything else, and trying to justify or rationalize away the performance of Kyle Orton is stupid. 11-19 as a starter for the Broncos. That stat is missing a ton of context, but at the end of the day, QB's are judged by Wins and Losses.

Some of you may even point out that Kyle Orton had a very good 21-12 record before coming to Denver. He played behind an exceptional defense, but they traded him away precisely because he couldn't, wouldn't, and/or shouldn't do many of the things that people debate about after the game. Even with all the theatrics that have accompanied Jay Cutlers time in Chicago, do you think they would want Orton back?

I say no, but it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter that I think Kyle Orton is a bum. It doesn't matter that I think Tim Tebow should be the starter. Because the only thing that matters is that at the end of the day, if Kyle Orton can't do his job, the Broncos will continue to lose.

Why I hate Kyle Orton the Quarterback

Now that Kyle Orton has been named the opening day starter decided this would be a good time to post this. It isn't complete, this is the fan/emotional look.

Look, this is what it comes down to for me, and no argument, discussion, debate or logical statement can change this for me: I hate Kyle Orton the Quarterback. Not the person, the quarterback.

When he came to Denver I was on the Orton fan train. Even got a free Kyle Orton picture from NFL.com at one point (never did anything with it). I watched all of his games in 2009, defended him, saw what he could do, and truly BELIEVED in him as a QB. I never watched him in Chicago, but listened to guys like Doc and Ted way back in the day over at MHR. I bought into the Kyle Orton project, even felt that the drafting of Tebow was the worst idea because Kyle seemed to me as a pretty damn good QB. Went through the whole thing, and when he came out in the 2010 preseason and was lighting it up, it was freaking awesome. VINDICATION! All those noodle arm jokes, dings about his abilities fell to the wayside. Even during the first 6 weeks while my faith was flagging at times, I believed that he was good enough. He showed True Grit in the Tennessee game, he looked great in the game vs the Seahawks. He did an admirable job against the Colts. The Jets game was a heartbreaker.

But then, the Raiders game happened. And after 10 minutes I saw what I see now, a quarterback who is not a leader of the Broncos. Go ahead, debate me, nothing you say will ever change my mind. On that day, he gave up, and the entire team gave up, and that is how it stayed the rest of the season with him as quarterback. Anytime something would go wrong, BAM, offense and defense both just gave up. If I had the endurance I could go back to every game in 2010 and find the exact drive where the team gave up. Week after week this happened, and right wrong or otherwise, a majority of my fan blame and hatred was directed at the quarter back. Because you know as bad as the defense played last year, they were constantly on the field because the offense did NOTHING. This is a fan emotion, and as I looked closer, I found the facts and stats that proved(to me) everything that I felt about Kyle Orton.

So it doesn't matter what he does at this point. The only way I will rejoin the Orton train is if he wins a Super Bowl this year. That is what it will take. I have so much anger towards Kyle Orton the Quarterback that at this point, it doesn't matter anymore. Tebow isn't perfect, but he is the kind of Quarterback I want, a man who inspires people. Rewatch those last 3 games. It is there. The stats may not show it, the win/loss record may not show it, but if you look at the performance of the team, he made everyone around him better, he lifted the team up. Look at the end of week 17 against the Chargers. 3 Nearly impossible things happened. Tebow gets the score with less than 40 seconds left, the team recovers the onside kick, and both of Tebow's hail mary passes bounced off the hands of a receiver.

The rest I have already said about the lack of a true competition, an everything else. But all of that doesn't matter, because I hate Kyle Orton the Quarterback.

Preseason Week 2: 1st Team Second Pass

So, I slept on it, and just finished re watching the 1st team offense and defense, and have some additional thoughts.

I was critical during the 1st drive for the first team defense, but upon second watching, I have a much better impression of it. They did a great job stopping the Bills offense, and it was a special teams gaffe that gave up the 4 & 1 conversion. Doom in particular did a great job stopping the runner on 3 & 1. I am hoping (and these past 2 weeks give me this hope) that at his heavier weight plus his experience will allow him to continue to be strong against the run.

The other thing I noticed is that every 3rd down that the Broncos would blitz, Champ was ALWAYS on the slot guy. This could be a tell in the future, but honestly I will take Champ vs any QB in the league and let the chips fall where they may. And others have said it, but holy crap is Von Miller fast. He mis-timed the snap on his off sides call, but even if he had gotten the timing right, that would still have been a sack. I also noticed that Doom and Von were moved around, with Doom being on the Left and Right at different points. The other impressive thing was the fact that Denver's front 4 was able to consistently get pressure on passing downs. Any time they blitzed they were destroying Viking's timing.

The one thing I noticed, and am not sure what the reason behind this, is that there was a ton of action up front, and this huge 5-8 yards in the middle of the field where there were no Bronco jersey's. Probably just the formation, but it helped lead to the Bills bigger gains on those screen passes. But give guys like Vaughn props for being able to stop the screen passes from completely gouging the defense.

As far as the offense goes...what can I say. When Orton plays like that I am happy because the Broncos are willing, but the sack that Orton took is the exact reason why I doubt him. Call me a cynical hater, but it is what it is.

If I have time tomorrow I will watch the second team, and try to contain all my sarcastic hater remarks towards Quinn

Preseason Week 2: First pass thoughts

So, preface this up front. The Bills SUUUUUUUCK. Fitzpatrick does have a killer Viking beard tho, so from now on I am going to call him Viking.

So, first up is the 1st string defense. Not sure why they weren't able to completely destroy the Bill's O-line, but they were able to hold them to a field goal. The big standouts to me were Doom on run support Von on the pass rush, and Champ Bailey in the slot. I really, really love Champ in the slot. When you blitz on 3rd and long, the slot guy is usually the outlet, and with Champ there I hope to see plenty of failed passes his way. Is it premature to say that Dennis Allen is bringing the kind of Defense that in a year or two could be a top 10? Again this week the defense dictated to the Bills offense, none of that read and react crap that seemed to be festering in the Bronco's for way too long.

This defense is mean. Yes I know Moore's hit was against a defenseless WR. I personally thought it was clean but I am obviously not smart enough (or buff enough if comparing myself to Houcli) to be a ref. But whatever. The other thing I really like is that for the most part, the defense is focusing on fundamentals, tackle, wrap up and put the MoFo on the ground. Do not leave the ground for a flying missile tackle. You look really stupid when you miss.

As for the 1st team offense, for the most part I liked the play of the O-Line. The run game wasn't working as well against the Cowboys, but it got the touchdown when it mattered. And surprise surprise, Kyle looked alright. Context being that this is the Bills, and I have to mention it, for fucks sake, you sacked your self against Chris Kuper. That is that bullshit, and he has done it too many times. So again, Kyle Orton looks just fine when nothing comes near him, but the moment he feels...something....he folds like a deck of cards. But what do I know, I apparently smoke Tebow crack.

I really like the run game this year(so far....). McGahee will punch it in the hole, and Moreno can do some very nice things. They will have to do a lot this year since we are going with Kyle "I grow a crappy neck beard and my bones are made of glass"Orton. Orton will not be effective in the Red Zone without it. Debate it with me all you want, but the only time he was successful in Chicago was when he had Forte as his constant outlet. What we saw tonight was Orton being Orton. He wasn't challenged in any way, and was effective. And that is the best he will ever be, effective. But remember, he looked good in the preseason last year, and we know how that ended.

Then there is Brady Quinn. I think you look like shit. A large % of your passes were check downs or passes in between the numbers. As far as I can tell, you attempted maybe 3 passes outside of the numbers. You STILL don't push the ball down the field, and this was against the 2's tonight/ Yeah, your TD pass was nice.

2nd string D has good spots and it has bad spots. Want to give a shout out to Ted Bartlett's Try Hard White Guy Mike Mohammed. Made some nice plays and I hipe if he doesn't make the team that he can be put on the practice squad.

The 2nd and 3rd string gave up a touchdown, but that is to be expected. But even then, those guys were out there playing aggressive defense, so the aggressive philosophy is everywhere. I like. And since I have a sneaking suspicion that Kyle Orton will lead the offense to plenty of 3 & outs. Yeah, I don't like Kyle Orton, but that is a rant for a different time(and if you read my comments at IAOFM you know how I feel)

Tebow....what can I say? He did nothing, didn't get a chance, and instead of letting him run the 2 minute drill you fucking put in Adam Webber and just let him hand the ball off 2 times???? baaaaah

That is all I got for tonight. More soon. Promise this time since well..more stuff to actually watch.

-- Gotta Knock a Little Harder

2nd pass: Preseason week 1: Denver vs Dallas

All right, so tonight I am going to give a more in depth look at what I see in the film of this here game. Tonight I will only be focusing on the 1st team offense and 1st team defense. Those of you looking for Tebow talk will have to wait until tomorrow. Very sad I know....but I want to try to make this more manageable to write, and hopefully more manageable to read. I will break this down by position group and describe everything that I see/think is going on while that unit is on the field.

So first up, the most glamorous position in football, the Offensive Line! (gotcha!)

The best thing about this offensive line in my opinion was the run blocking. Orlando Franklin had some problems(as a rookie would, who woulda thunk?), his COMPLETE whiff in the RZ was what killed that run play for a loss. My only concern I guess, and perhaps this is unfounded, but it seemed that every time the Cowboys blitzed, nobody was getting a double team. First play from scrimmage the Cowboys DE came untouched, and if Orton hadn't thrown the ball as high as he did that DE would have had a chance for a pick(more on that later, FOCUS!). Pass blocking against a blitz is a concern, because seemingly Orton got the pass out a half second before he would have been leveled. I doubt it is ever designed to allow your quarter back to have no time to throw, even with the blitz. If that pattern continues given Orton's mobility, he WILL get mauled a lot. This was for the two passes outside of the RZ, I will get to the Red Zone shortly. This group needs time to gel, and I am still waiting to see more film on Beadles and Walton before I make any final calls. Those two were constantly beaten last year, so I can only hope the lack of an offseason didn't hurt their development.

Running Backs:

This was the best part of the 1st team offense. Knowshown and McGahee showed that Fox Ball is possible with these running backs. Knowshown showing the skill we all knew he had, and McGahee both hit the hole hard and got yards, and also did the nifty move where he bounced it outside to the left and gained good yards. Being able to rush the ball 5 times in a row and get 36 yards off of it shows that you are doing something right. The defense was even expecting the runs and the O-Line plus the runners were able to get the job done very well.

Receivers:

Outside of the red zone, there was only one play to speak of, Eric Decker's beautiful catch and run. Great example of taking advantage of the blitz and making a big play on 3rd down. Like this guy, like him a lot. I think it will be interesting to see the WR depth chart and who will be playing where. Will Royal go outside or stay inside at the slot? Will Decker go outside or stay in at the slot. And when Demaryus Thomas is back into the line up, where does that fit. Plus with guys like Matt Willis and Mark Dell, it is nice to see depth at that position. They also did a great job in the run game with their blocking, so...there is a lot of interesting things going on here.

Red zone:

Red zone red zone red zone red zone , what can I say. Orlando Franklin whiffs on a run block completly, 4 failed passes, 1 run play for a loss of yards, a penalty, and only 3 points. Sound familiar? Because I have seen how this story ends. Call me an alarmist, but the defense isn't even showing exotic plays, blitzes or packages and Kyle "I throw such a pretty ball and oooo look at my mechanics" Orton can't get the ball in there. Lets forget about that other QB on the roster and look at Orton's play. To me...the fade route to Lloyd just looked like a bad decision. To me it never looked like Lloyd got any separation. I know he is a beast, but.....

Very next play, nothing again. Offensive Line might not have held up long enough, but Orton just threw it out of the back to Lloyd. Look, all I am saying is that Orton had the threat of a run game down in the red zone (something his supporters have been talking about.....separate argument).

All right, I am tired. I will do 1st string defense tomorrow.

1st Pass: Denver vs. Dallas Preseason Game 1

Alrighty, here we go with pass numero uno on the Bronco's very first preseason game. This isn't going to be perfect, but it is what it is and hopefully you will enjoy your read, and if not well....hopefully you will learn to love and laugh again.

All right, lets focus!

This post will focus on my first watch of the game, live with both live video and audio from the KOA broadcast. Lets try to organize this in some semblance of thought...

1st Team Offense:

Good

How awesome was it to see the team march down the field using a run game. It gives me a bit of hope that the O-Line has drastically improved since last season, and hopefully with everyone working together during TC and in the preseason (please no injuries!) they will get better. Orlando Franklin was also really nice in run blocking, he needs to improve in pass blocking, but my understanding is that most 1st year O-Lineman need time to develop the pass blocking. Easier to maul forward, harder to move back and protect.

Liked how Knowshown fought through the line(spin move out of the backfield anyone?). Not sure he will ever be a big star, but hopefully with McGahee sharing the load, and a stronger emphasis on the run game, he will be consistent and healthy. He is a good receiver out of the backfield, and should work as a great checkdown receiver. Didn't see many opportunities to test out the short yardage situations that have haunted the Broncos for years, but I want to think positive, it's the preseason right? Knowshown did have the nice 2nd & 3 run that became a first down. I would be remiss in not mentioning McGahee, awesome running.Overall, the run game looked nice for the one series it was out there.

Matt Prater is money. Just sign him up for 10 years and forget about it.

I didn't see much of Eric Decker , but his big pass play make me wonder who would work better in the slot(at least while D. Thomas is out of the lineup). Royal had his best season as an outside receiver, and while he didn't play tonight that is a development I will be watching.

Bad:

Here is a question that I have had since reading about it in Training Camp, why do Kyle Orton passes get knocked down at the LOS with a higher frequency then other QB's? On this play it certaintly looks like the DE saw that screen pass and just stuck them hands up and killed the play. Not that Lloyd would have gotten far with the way the CB was rushing up on him.

Kyle Orton:

Ok, so..... to me it seems we have the same old Kyle Orton. Great between the 20's, field goal to end the drive. When there are 3+ WR's on the field the defense doesn't respect the threat of a run game at all, this DESPITE the fact that during his series the Broncos were running all over the Dallas Defense. I am not impressed with his play, at all. In the end, with him starting I see plenty of 3 and outs (because we are playing Fox Ball here, run, run pas). Orton's style of passing was figured out last year, and even with the threat of a run game, I have a feeling he will get beat again this year. Maybe I will see something different when I rewatch the game, but this was an example of "Same shit, different day". Will watch this more in the coming preseason weeks, but he played WORSE in this 1st preseason game then he did in last years 1st preseason game. To be expected I supposed given the lockout etc etc etc, but all the reports out of training camp, but 2/6 is not good, and ZERO completions in the red zone is one of the reasons why this team couldn't score last year to begin with. I am harsh, get over it.

1st team defense:

Good:

Pressure, aggression and a desire to dictate to the offense. None of that read/react shit. It will be interesting to see how it develops as the season goes on when the guys get a chance to gel and learn the playbook better. Is it a Top 10 defense? I think not, but I am going to put them around 16, which in the grand scheme of things is a huge improvement from 32nd. The concern is giving up big plays in the run game and stopping the screen game. Until I see more I am not going to comment on it more. They gave up 2 big run plays, one was 20ish yards, the other was 18. Denver last year gave up something like 80 plays of over 20 yards last year. For this defense to improve that must change, but hey, no big pass plays out of the 1st team, so that is that.

And did I mention pressure? Loved that fact.

Bad:

More of a concern on the 2 big run plays, and the big(ish) plays from the Romo pass in the flat and the screen pass that turned into a big game. It is what it is, but they held them where it counts and kept them to a field goal.

2nd Team Offense

Good:

Well, this is where it gets a bit harder, but lets give it a go. The 2nd Team WR's are quite impressive, Ninja Willis is a keeper if he can stay healthy. The O-line got better as the game went on, so I can only hope that the first series performance was an anomaly and that the depth on the O-Line isn't as bad as first appeared. Still, Tebow was almost murdered on the first series.

Bad:

Christ, if I loved the run game we were able to get from the 1st team, I hated the run game that we got from the 2nd team. It was 2010 all over again. Stuffed in the back field, stuffed, 3rd and long. That will put anyone in a bad situation(which puts my next set on Tebow into context).

Hey, here is something else, Tim Tebow in the Shotgun, empty backfield, 5WR set, what play is going to be run.....a QB draw! EVERY SINGLE FUCKING TIME! This happened in all 3 of his starts last year, and it happened every time in this game. If I know this, the opposing teams know this. Throw the fucking ball eh?

And while I know we are now playing Fox Ball, in the preseason I would like to see you ATTEMPT to convert a 3rd and long. Who cares if you don't get it, try....HB Draw...really? *sigh*

Tim Tebow:

I am a Tebow fan. I believe Tebow should be the starter. Now that we got THAT out of the way lets look at his performance. Given that he had ZERO run game and was in 3rd and long situations behind a leaky O-Line, he did great. He ended his 1.5(ish) quarters 6/7 for 91 yards plus 2 rushes for 15 yards. I wanted to see him get a TD, and if the O-Line didn't measure their quality on the number of holds they got he would have gotten one. The big thing that Tebow did again in this game was push the ball down the field. His screen game also worked, because teams are keying on him.

He is raw, and he needs to work through his progressions, but he needs reps to accomplish that. Put the 1st team running game WITH Tebow and you will see the run game be even more effective, and the pass game will become easier for Tebow to grow into because of the run threat. He did lock on a few times, but given that he only had one incompletion....I am going to say he had the best performance of the night given the full context(because I think context is important).

And for fun(because it is preseason) how hilarious was the broken play. Shows Tebow's character, and it was hilarious.

2nd Team Defense (gonna get a bit shorter from here, need to rewatch the game)

I love the fact that we have depth this year on the defense. I do not envy that staff in trying to cut down the roster. The fact that the 2nd team D held up against the run is encouraging, and again only game up a field goal is a nice change from last year where apparently the team had no depth anywhere. This group was doing more of the same from the 1st team, pressure and being aggressive to dictate to the offense. Jason Hunter was also doing well to justify keeping him around. Seemed to always be in on the pressures, and his two sacks were nice.

Perrish Cox gets an interception, probably won't keep you out of jail but whatever.

3rd Team Offense

JJ is a keeper.....

Brady Quinn:

Christ, talk about a tale of 2 quarters. Brady Quinn did everything he could to get on a episode of NFL Follies. From falling down on a hand off to 2 straight 3 and outs, his 3rd quarter performance was hilarious. He did get more comfortable in the 4th quarter, but in context....he was playing against the weakest competition. Remember when Tom Brandstater looked like Tom Brady 2.0? Yeah, so do I. Context is important, and Quinn has started 9(?)ish games in the NFL, so I would expect him to look good against the 3's. He also had the benefit of a run game....makes it easier to do things when you have that.

He did make some nice throws, and he is vastly improved from last year when he couldn't do jack shit. I am not convinced he is the 1st or 2nd QB on the roster.

That is enough out of me tonight. Sad we lost, loved seeing real Bronco's football. Any and all comments, criticisms and ways to improve will be greatly appreciated. Over the next few days I am going to break down the game play by play and give a more detailed post or two, so hopefully that will be entertaining!

--See you, Space Cowboy