Mr. Self Destruct and Missing the Point

So.....here we go.

Football stats are shit. They always have been, they always will be. I am a software engineer who works in the simulation industry, so that is where I am coming from. Here is the problem with football stats, they can only tell you, marginally at best, what has already happened, which is useless because if you watch the game and look at what happened on each individual play, you would know better about what happened in a game then you would by running and looking at any stat, basic, advanced, cheese wiz, any stat at best lets you get a general feel for what happened numerically.

Hey, hate to break it to you stat people, unless your stats start to become predictive in nature, then it is just an exercise in number jerking. You are essentially saying "look at how well Excell can add, subtract, multiply and divide". Ooooooooo, how fancy for you. Big fucking deal. Unless stats are helping you create a model that helps you predict what a team will do, or be able to do, then you might as well go back to typing 80085 into your calculators, because all you have done is miss the fucking point. Football is a complicated system filled with an enormous number of variables per play per position that trying to generalize any of that into a very small set of numbers(even advanced stats fail to cover the full breadth and scope of any one single thing that it tries to interpret. Sorry, if you want to know what is going on, you have to watch the game, multiple times. If you use stats to make your arguments, then you are no better then any moron on ESPN or NFLN who simply looks at the box score and makes idiotic statements that are not based in reality.

And doing that is hard, very very hard *and that is indeed what she said*. I have only begun to gain any competency in it as a skill, but it is the only way to know what is going on and have that deeper understanding. People who are great at it tend to be compensated very well for it. Every week I try to watch the previous 2-3 games of the Broncos opponents, as well as the Broncos themselves from the previous week, along with all of the press conferences by the Broncos coaches. I am willing to put in the time and effort so I can speak intelligently about what is going on. I do not look at box scores, I do not look at game summaries, I look at what happened. Not perfect, but I make the effort.

By focusing on the small, individual stats, you miss the greater picture. To quote Bruce Lee: "Don't think, FEEL. Its like a finger pointing to the moon. If you concentrate on the finger you will miss all that heavenly glory." There is flow to every single motion that occurs by every player on the field on each play, and what one does has a direct impact on what happens with other players. So....how does 15/25 account for any of that? It doesn't.

I am just so sick and tired of stats people using stats to inflate their ego's and sense of intelligence. How can you even have a conversation with someone who is so steadfast that their stats tell a deeper picture that they miss what happens on the field.

I will use a Tim Tebow example. Against the Patriots, on his fumble, Ryan Clady didn't block anybody, the running back didn't block anybody, and Tebow was unable to get it out quick enough to avoid the bad play. So where are the stats that tell that whole sequence of events? None, all you get are "Tebow fumbled the ball". Nevermind Ryan "Holding" Clady's inability to do ANYTHING on that play, or the running back's failure to do ANYTHING in protection, yup lets look at the end result of the play and clap our flipper hands and spout idiotic drivel.