Myopia

A statistically average QB would do statistically below average with

A WR corp that
* Doesn't get separation
* Has far too many drops
* Doesn't run routes at the right depth to get 1st Downs (I am looking at you Eddie)
* Doesn't stretch the field

The running game would also be greatly affected because
* The numerical advantage it currently enjoys would disappear without a running threat QB
* The Defense would only have to key on and rush on runner in the game.
* The running lanes that McGahee is currently enjoying would be much smaller

The O-Line's deficiencies would also be further exposed because
* The ability to gameplan for a traditional offense means they are able to play instinct football.
* LB's no longer have to spy/be assigned to a particular player because there is no dual threat.

The league average Quarterback would also have more sacks per game and more interceptions per game.

The offense as an entire unit needs to improve. Saying that a "league average quarterback" would do league average work with the current talent on offense is short sighted and myopic.

And lets look at the "more points offense" that Denver ran with the "below average quarterback"

Week 1: Denver vs Oakland: 24 - 20 L
272 Net Yards Passing 1 Passing TD, 1 Int
38 Net Yards Rushing 0 TD's
4 fumbles, 2 lost
Third Down Efficiency 6/13 - 46%
ST: Punt return for a touchdown.
Offense total points scored: 13

Week 2: Bengles vs Broncos 24 - 22 W
187 Net yards passing 2 Passing TD's 0 Ints
131 Net Rushing Yards, 1 TD
2 Fumbles, 2 Lost
Third Down Efficiency 5/12 - 41%
Offense total points scored: 24

Week 3: Broncos vs Titans 14 - 17 L
Net Yards Passing 172 2 Passing TD's, 2 Ints
Net Yards Rushing 59 0 TD's
0 Fumbles
Third Down Efficiency 8/15 - 53%
Offense total points scored: 14

Week 4 Broncos vs Packers 49 - 23 L
Net Yards Passing 265, 3 TDs, 3 Ints
Net Yards Rushing 119 0 TD's
1 Fumble, 1 Lost
Third Down Efficiency 4/11 - 36%
Offense total points scored: 23
Third Down Efficiency 4/11 - 36%

So, by MY count, the Broncos were scoring: 13, 24, 14, 23 for an average of: 18.5 points per game! OOoooooo what an offensive juggernaut Tebow crashed and burned.

But I know I know, I don't read too good because of my residency in a zombie village.

*hangs self from sheer myopia*

--Your gonna carry that weight

.
.	Name	G	Att	Comp	Pct	Att/G	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Rushing Yards	Average	Rushing TD's	Fumbles	Sck	Rate	Total Yards	Total Scores	Total Giveaways
.	Alex Smith	9	165	84	50.9	18.3	875	5.3	97.2	1	0.6	11	6.7	103	3.3	0	2	29	40.8	978	1	13
.	Alex Smith	16	442	257	58.1	27.6	2890	6.5	180.6	16	3.6	16	3.6	147	2.8	2	4	35	74.8	3037	18	20
.	Alex Smith	7	193	94	48.7	27.6	914	4.7	130.6	2	1	4	2.1	89	1.9	0	0	17	57.2	1003	2	4
.
.	Vince Young	5	357	184	51.5	23.8	2199	6.2	146.6	12	3.4	13	3.6	552	6.7	7	6	25	66.7	2751	19	19
.	Vince Young	15	382	238	62.3	25.5	2546	6.7	169.7	9	2.4	17	4.5	395	4.2	3	5	25	71.1	2941	12	22
.	Vince Young	3	36	22	61.1	12	219	6.1	73	1	2.8	2	5.6	27	3.4	0		3	64.5	246	1	2
.
.	Matt Leinart	12	377	214	56.8	31.4	2547	6.8	212.2	11	2.9	12	3.2	49	1.8	2	4	21	74	2596	13	16
.	Matt Leinart	5	112	60	53.6	22.4	647	5.8	129.4	2	1.8	4	3.6	42	2.2	0	0	4	61.9	689	2	4
.	Matt Leinart	4	29	15	51.7	7.2	264	9.1	66	1	3.4	1	3.4	5	1	0	0	2	80.2	269	1	1
.
.	Matt Ryan	16	434	265	61.1	27.1	3440	7.9	215	16	3.7	11	2.5	104	3.4	1	4	17	87.7	3544	17	15
.	Matt Ryan	14	451	263	58.3	32.2	2916	6.5	208.3	22	4.9	14	3.1	49	2.1	1	0	19	80.9	2965	23	14
.	Matt Ryan	16	571	357	62.5	35.7	3705	6.5	231.6	28	4.9	9	1.6	122	2.9	0	1	23	91	3827	28	10
.
.	Joe Flacco	16	428	257	60	26.8	2971	6.9	185.7	14	3.3	12	2.8	180	3.5	2	5	32	80.3	3151	16	17
.	Joe Flacco	16	499	315	63.1	31.2	3613	7.2	225.8	21	4.2	12	2.4	56	1.6	0	2	36	88.9	3669	21	14
.	Joe Flacco	16	489	306	62.6	30.6	3622	7.4	226.4	25	5.1	10	2	84	2	1	2	40	93.6	3706	26	12
.
.	Matthew Stafford	10	377	201	53.3	37.7	2267	6	226.7	13	3.4	20	5.3	108	5.4	2	0	24	61	2375	15	20
.	Matthew Stafford	3	96	57	59.4	32	535	5.6	178.3	6	6.3	1	1	11	2.8	1	1	4	91.3	546	7	2
.	Matthew Stafford	9	362	216	59.7	40.2	2508	6.9	278.7	20	5.5	8	2.2	31	3.4	0	1	18	89.9	2539	20	9
.
.	Mark Sanchez	15	364	196	53.8	24.3	2444	6.7	162.9	12	3.3	20	5.5	106	2.9	3	2	26	63	2550	15	22
.	Mark Sanchez	16	507	278	54.8	31.7	3291	6.5	205.7	17	3.4	13	2.6	105	3.5	3	4	27	75.3	3396	20	17
.	Mark Sanchez	10	338	193	57.1	33.8	2333	6.9	233.3	14	4.1	10	3	75	3.3	3	4	25	79.9	2408	17	14
.
.	Josh Freeman	10	290	158	54.5	29	1855	6.4	185.5	10	3.4	18	6.2	161	5.4	0	4	20	59.8	2016	10	22
.	Josh Freeman	16	474	291	61.4	29.6	3451	7.3	215.7	25	5.3	6	1.3	364	5.4	0	2	28	95.9	3815	25	8
.	Josh Freeman	9	340	208	61.2	37.8	2174	6.4	241.6	9	2.6	13	3.8	142	4.2	2	0	14	72.6	2316	11	13
.
.	Sam Bradford	16	590	354	60	36.9	3512	6	219.5	18	3.1	15	2.5	63	2.3	1	1	34	76.5	3575	19	16
.	Sam Bradford	7	257	142	55.3	36.7	1587	6.2	226.7	4	1.6	4	1.6	27	1.9	0		26	72.6	1614	4	4
.
.	Tim Tebow	9	82	41	50	9.1	654	8	72.7	5	6.1	3	3.7	227	5.3	6	1	6	82.1	881	11	4
.	Tim Tebow	8	125	56	44.8	15.6	709	5.7	88.6	7	5.6	1	0.8	388	6.9	3	2	15	78.4	1097	10	3
.
.	Cam Newton	9	327	197	60.2	36.3	2605	8	289.4	11	3.4	10	3.1	374	5.3	7	2	22	84	2979	18	12
.
.	Blaine Gabbert	8	194	93	47.9	24.2	1025	5.3	128.1	6	3.1	5	2.6	65	2.2	0	6	21	63.6	1090	6	11
.
.	Christian Ponder	4	111	56	50.5	27.8	744	6.7	186	3	2.7	3	2.7	60	5.5	0	1	9	69.8	804	3	4
.
.	Andy Dalton	9	287	173	60.3	31.9	1866	6.5	207.3	14	4.9	9	3.1	26	2	1	0	12	82.6	1892	15	9

The Egg and I: History Of Recent 1st Round QB's, By the Numbers

So, I am going to leave analysis to the smarter people. If I am feeling super annoyed by something, I will write it up here, but I present to you....a CHART! These stats are all from NFL.com, and the number of games is representative of total games played in, not started.

Year 1

Name/Games Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(9) * 1/1/2005/SF 165 84 50.9 875 1 11 5.3 40.8

Aaron Rodgers(3) * 1/24/2005/GB 16 9 56.3 65 0 1 4.1 39.8

Jason Campbell * 1/25/2005/WAS - - - - - - - -

Vince Young(15) * 1/3/2006/TEN 357 184 51.5 2199 12 13 6.2 66.7

Matt Leinart(12) * 1/10/2006/AZ 377 214 56.8 2547 11 12 6.8 74.0

Jay Cutler(5) * 1/11/2006/DEN 137 81 59.1 1001 9 5 7.3 88.5

JaMarcus Russel(4) * 1/1/2007/OAK 66 36 54.5 373 2 4 5.7 55.9

Brady Quinn(1) * 1/22/2007/CLE 8 3 37.5 45 0 0 5.6 56.8

Matt Ryan(16) * 1/3/2008/ATL 434 265 61.1 3440 16 11 7.9 87.7

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 428 257 60.0 2917 14 12 6.9 80.3

Matthew Stafford(10) * 1/1/2009/Det 377 201 53.3 2267 13 20 6.0 61.0

Mark Sanchez(15) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 364 196 53.8 2444 12 20 6.7 63.0

Josh Freeman(10) * 1/17/2009/TB 290 158 54.5 1855 10 18 6.4 59.8

Sam Bradford(16) * 1/1/2010/STL 590 354 60.0 3512 18 15 6.0 76.5

Tim Tebow(9) * 1/25/2010/DEN 82 41 50.0 654 5 3 8.0 82.1

Cam Newton(9) * 1/1/2011/CAR 327 197 60.2 2605 11 10 8.0 84.0

Blaine Gabbert(8) * 1/10/2011/JAX 194 93 47.9 1025 6 5 5.3 63.6

Christian Ponder(4) * 1/12/2011/MIN 111 56 50.5 744 3 3 6.7 69.8

Andy Dalton(9) * 2/3/2011/CIN 287 173 60.3 1866 14 9 6.5 82.6

Year 2

Name Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(16) * 1/1/2005/SF 442 257 58.1 2,890 16 16 6.5 74.8

Aaron Rodgers(2) * 1/24/2005/GB 15 6 40.0 46 0 0 3.1 48.2

Jason Campbell(7) * 1/25/2005/WAS 207 110 53.1 1297 10 6 6.3 76.5

Vince Young(15) * 1/3/2006/TEN 382 238 62.3 2546 9 17 6.7 71.1

Matt Leinart(5) * 1/10/2006/AZ 112 60 53.6 647 2 4 5.8 61.9

Jay Cutler(16) * 1/11/2006/DEN 467 297 63.6 3497 20 14 7.5 88.1

JaMarcus Russel(15)* 1/1/2007/OAK 198 368 53.8 2423 13 8 6.6 77.1

Brady Quinn(3) * 1/22/2007/CLE 89 45 50.6 518 2 2 5.8 66.6

Matt Ryan(14) * 1/3/2008/ATL 451 263 58.3 2916 22 14 6.5 80.9

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 499 315 63.1 3613 21 12 7.2 88.9

Matthew Stafford(3) * 1/1/2009/Det 96 57 59.4 535 6 1 5.6 91.3

Mark Sanchez(16) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 507 278 54.8 3291 17 13 6.5 75.3

Josh Freeman(16) * 1/17/2009/TB 474 291 61.4 3451 25 6 7.3 95.9

Sam Bradford (7) * 1/1/2010/STL 257 142 55.3 1587 4 4 6.2 72.6

Tim Tebow(8) * 1/25/2010/DEN 125 56 44.8 709 7 1 5.7 78.4

Year 3

Name Round Picked/YR Att. Comp. Comp. % Yards TD's Int's YPA Rate

Alex Smith(7) * 1/1/2005/SF 193 94 48.7 914 2 4 4.7 57.2

Aaron Rodgers(2) * 1/24/2005/GB 28 20 71.4 109 1 0 7.8 106

Jason Campbell(16) * 1/25/2005/WAS 506 315 62.3 3245 13 6 6.4 84.3

Vince Young(3) * 1/3/2006/TEN 36 22 61.1 219 1 2 6.1 64.5

Matt Leinart(4) * 1/10/2006/AZ 29 15 51.7 264 1 1 9.1 80.2

Jay Cutler(16) * 1/11/2006/DEN 616 384 62.3 4526 25 18 7.3 86.0

JaMarcus Russel(12)* 1/1/2007/OAK 246 120 48.8 1287 3 11 5.2 50.0

Brady Quinn(10) * 1/22/2007/CLE 256 136 53.1 1339 8 7 5.2 67.2

Matt Ryan(16) * 1/3/2008/ATL 571 357 62.5 3705 28 9 6.5 91.0

Joe Flacco(16) * 1/18/2008/BAL 489 306 62.6 3622 25 10 7.4 93.6

Matthew Stafford(9) * 1/1/2009/Det 362 216 59.7 2508 20 8 6.9 89.9

Mark Sanchez(10) * 1/5/2009/NYJ 338 193 57.1 2333 14 10 6.9 79.9

Josh Freeman(9) * 1/17/2009/TB 340 208 61.2 2174 9 13 6.4 72.6

So...take what you will from all of this, but it certaintly provides numerical context, but not game context. Tebow is certainty not the worst Young QB that has played though....

--Diggin My Potato

The Grand Unification Theory of Tebow

So, this is more or less what I posted at IAOFM today, and is being saved here for all of history because...well I liked it....I personally don't see much humor in X > Y (in this case, X > Tebow), but alas I went this route....

For this math to work you have to assume either

a) The value of Tebow will remain a constant
b) The value of Tebow will never cross a certain threshold.

I mean you could also look at it that the value of Tebow is like some universal constant, like the Speed of Light or the ratio of Unicorns to Leprechauns, but that is a dangerous assumption. I mean if someone were to develop the General Theory of Tebow it is entirely possible that it will run into even more problems then String Theory.

And what if the value of Tebow isn’t a universal constant? How does the value of Tebow react when viewed at the quantum level?

Does the act of observing a Tebow affect the outcome? Can two Tebows interact and affect each other across great distances without ever interacting?

And even more fundamental….what is a unit of Tebow? What is its value?

What happens if you smash two Tebows together at near the speed of light? What are the constituent pieces of a Tebow?

Does a Tebow operate like a wave or an electron or both?

The big problem of determing the value of a Tebow is that first you need to be able to account for all factors that go into determining the composition of a Tebow. The other problem is the “gamer” quality that really makes pure scientific analysis hard(that’s what she said) because as it turns out, a unit of Tebow is not a universal constant, and it is indeed dependent on external influences that affect the results of your measurements.

As we all saw during TC this year, the value of a Tebow in practice != value of a Tebow in game. Hell, the value of a Tebow in game isn’t even a consistent variable!!! A 4th Quarter Tebow can be > 3rd Quarter Tebow, but that equation is not a constant either!

That is why I purpose the following plan of action, we invade one of our many parallel universes (Fringe style baby) and steal their Tebow. We then go to the LHC and accelerate the two separate Tebows to near the speed of light and see what their collisions produce. I mean, we need to get some very clear measurements on the composition of a Tebow before we can start making definitive statements about the value of a Tebow.

Then we run into the problem of determing the relation of the value of Tebow’s constituent elements in comparison to each other. I mean, how do you determine the value of intangibles vs Jockey Briefs? Sticking with the string theory analogy (as we are trying to do develop a Grand Unification Theory of Tebow), I hereby purpose that each individual element of a Tebow is in fact made up of tiny, vibrating Tebows, as such a Tebow is a collection of Tebows(or possibly a collection of Tebows could just be a 2D plane of Tebows….but that gets confusing….).

Once we isolate all of the individual elements of a Tebow, then we can start to determine their value in relation to the other elements of Tebow(somebody make a Periodic Table of the Tebows). Once we understand all of the interactions inherent in a Tebow action, then we can look at some of the other variables you mentioned.

Heck, the more I think about it, The Grand Unification Theory of Tebow is more ambitious then anything else this world has seen, because to determine the equations and values of things like media scuzz cycle, we need to quantifiable determine the value of a Peter King, and how he interacts!

I could be thinking crazy here, but perhaps all matter is made up of Tebows! If that were the case, we could then determine that the all of us are made of Tebow….oh my god….that means…

X > Tebow is a mathematical fallacy because if everything is made of Tebows, then Tebow > Tebow is a logical failure! The only thing that makes any logical sense is that X = Tebow! The only difference between all matter in the universe is the vibration of the faiths of the individual Tebows! Crap! what does the individual shape of a Tebow look like? How many additional dimensions does this new Theory require to make sense? How does it affect gravity?

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

-- Jammin with Edward